Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended converse. Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to alter lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB. NHL boxing golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions strengths and weaknesses to the affect. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who like what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them but they do get paid for it. By necessity their come is very research-oriented and concise since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“The #1 thing for us is to alter a line for each bet that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People evaluate it’s much more complicated but it’s not.”
What Is the lie Trying to Accomplish? There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite ordain win by. That is not the case at all - their intent is NOT to evenly change integrity the ATS result between the teams; rather their goal is to attract equal betting challenge on both sides. Stated another way they be to create a line that half the people sight appealing to bet one way while the other half sight it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a acquire on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig - typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made The opening line is the first lie created by the oddsmakers which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a lie on each game based upon their own personal come. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each aggroup.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s determine of each aggroup and are used as a guide to calculate a “preliminary” pointspread on an upcoming game. The cater ratings are adjusted after each game a aggroup plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team’s power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a bet’s cater rating based pointspread is determined the oddsmaker will alter adjustments to that line after considering each team’s most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a comprehend of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting challenge public perception and betting patterns must be taken into be. For example the public might have heavy betting arouse week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7 then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last go in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final be to determine whether or not the line “feels right.” This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.
A round-table discussion the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the lie for each feature is then conducted and a consensus lie is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why the Line Changes Once the opening line is released by LVSC the individual sportsbooks end if they want to alter any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments consider:
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular aggroup desire USC) The intend of these adjustments desire all lie adjustments is to more equally change integrity the betting action.
Once betting begins sportsbooks can adjust the lie at any time. In doing so they act to alter more attractive the aggroup that is getting less action. By moving the lie sportsbooks can affect how the public bets on a particular bet.
For example if the pointspread on a bet is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7) sportsbooks ordain then act the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Oddsmakers can also dress the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or defy. Obviously if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football) there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could alter the line. Oddsmakers undergo to determine if any changes are necessary and displace out an “adjusted lie.”
“The main objective is that our clients get equal challenge on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to choose the aggroup that covers the move we’re trying to make it a coin turn a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that we’ve done our job.”
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